Reimagining FDT: A Pragmatic Approach to Decision Theory

Understanding decision-making isn't just an academic exercise; it's an art that influences every choice we make. Functional Decision Theory (FDT) offers a unique lens for this, yet it remains contentious among theorists. This is a call to evolve FDT into something actionable and accessible—dubbed Pragmatic FDT—to navigate the labyrinth of decisions with precision.

Why Pragmatic FDT?

The crux of understanding Pragmatic FDT is its adaptability. Traditional FDT's reliance on comparing algorithms can be elusive. Our approach moves beyond theoretical entanglements by seeking pragmatic resolutions. The goal? Simplifying complex decisions without needing philosophical declarations akin to "solving" decision puzzles.

The Pitfall of Theoretical Definitions

Insight: Don't get lost in defining sameness; focus on practical outcomes.

Mental Model: Outcome-First Framework

1. Identify Decisions: Clearly outline the decision problems.
2. Predict Outcomes: Use existing data to make predictions tied to tangible outputs.
3. Optimize Solutions: Choose actions based on likely beneficial outcomes without being tethered to abstract thought experiments.

Predictors in Game Theory: The Bridge

Here's where it gets intriguing—predictors evoke elements of game theory when making counterfactual predictions. Consider them as players in a broader strategic game:

Mental Model: Predictor as Player

• Predictor's Role: View predictors not as passive but as active participants strategizing alongside us.
• Game-theory Application: Map decision scenarios to classical games—tit-for-tat, prisoner's dilemma—highlighting predictor intentions and potential outcomes.

This perspective illustrates why FDT's perceived irrationality becomes apparent—a shift from isolated calculations to understanding predictors as influencing agents reshapes actions.

The Blackmail Dilemma

This conundrum mirrors the predictor issue. Do we succumb to threats because of their hypothetical nature, or do we strategize around them?

Practical Maxim: Blackmail Resilience

• Acceptance: Acknowledge threats without capitulating.
• Strategize: Use game-theory insights to counter intuitive threats, maintaining ethical consistency without losing strategic foresight.

Roadmap for Personal Application

• Simplify: Focus on decisions with clear, beneficial outcomes rather than reconciling theoretical abstracts.
• Strategize Predictors: Treat predictions as interactive elements within your decision-making framework.
• Resist Rationalization Traps: Avoid mental loops trying to define every element; embrace practical, clear actions.

In Conclusion

Pragmatic FDT offers a way to reframe decision-making, favoring outcomes over definitions. By viewing predictors through the lens of game theory, we unlock fresh strategic insights, allowing us to navigate complex choices with newfound clarity and confidence.

Sources & Further Reading

Explore this evolving dialogue further at LessWrong.